Ghana’s Oil Exports Drop by Over $1bn in First 10 Months of 2025
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
Fresh data from the Bank of Ghana, points to a sharp deterioration in Ghana’s oil export earnings in 2025, underscoring growing vulnerabilities in the country’s petroleum sector.
By the end of October 2025, Ghana’s oil exports had fallen to $2.2 billion, compared with $3.3 billion over the same period in 2024. This represents a decline of approximately $1.12 billion, reflecting the combined impact of weaker international oil prices and a sustained fall in domestic crude oil production.
International oil prices have trended downward throughout 2025. Crude oil entered the year trading slightly above $70 per barrel, but prices have steadily weakened, falling to lows of about $59 and currently hovering around $60 per barrel. This is well below the $70–$80 per barrel range that prevailed for much of 2023 and 2024. Available data suggest that average oil prices in 2025 are the lowest since the latter part of 2021, exerting pressure on oil-exporting economies, including Ghana.
However, price weakness explains only part of Ghana’s revenue shortfall. The decline in export earnings has been compounded by falling production volumes, limiting the country’s ability to offset lower prices with higher output.
Ghana’s crude oil production has been on a steady downward trajectory since peaking in 2019 at 71.4 million barrels. Output declined to about 48 million barrels in 2024, while the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) estimates production of 46.3 million barrels for 2025, a projection that increasingly appears optimistic.
The gap between targets and reality has widened significantly. In 2019, the Ministry of Finance projected that Ghana would produce 500,000 barrels per day by 2024. In 2025, actual production is estimated at around 126,994 barrels per day, far below that ambition.
Recent data highlight the scale of the slowdown. In the first half of 2025, Ghana produced 18.4 million barrels, down from 24.8 million barrels during the same period in 2024, a sharp 25.8 percent decline.
Government revenues have fallen even faster than output. Oil receipts dropped by 56 percent, from $840 million in the first half of 2024 to $370 million in the first half of 2025, further constraining fiscal space.
At the same time, Ghana’s oil import bill has risen sharply. Imports of refined petroleum products increased by about $500 million over the first ten months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. Monthly petroleum imports now average roughly $430 million, up from about $390 million last year. The combination of declining export earnings and rising import costs has intensified pressure on the balance of payments and increased demand for foreign exchange.
Analysts point to deeper structural challenges underpinning these trends. Policy uncertainty in the upstream petroleum sector, delays in approving new petroleum agreements and limited exploration activity have reduced investor confidence. With no major new wells coming on stream, production continues to decline, eroding government revenue and increasing dependence on imported refined products.
The growing domestic demand for petroleum products has renewed calls for expanded local refining capacity. Cutting petroleum imports, which now average around $400 million a month could significantly ease pressure on the cedi and reduce Ghana’s exposure to external shocks.
The Ghana Petroleum Hub Corporation is expected to play a central role in addressing this gap by positioning Ghana as a regional refining and petroleum trading hub. However, analysts stress that progress will depend on sustained policy clarity, regulatory certainty and long-term investment commitments.
Without decisive action to revive upstream production and accelerate domestic refining, Ghana risks remaining trapped between declining oil output, weaker export earnings and rising import costs. For now, oil is increasingly a source of vulnerability rather than a stabilising anchor for the economy.
