Cedi Projected to Weaken by 8% Against Dollar in 2026 – Fitch Solutions
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
The Ghana cedi is expected to depreciate by about 8.0 percent against the United States dollar in 2026, according to projections by UK-based research firm Fitch Solutions, although the firm believes pressures on the currency will remain relatively contained compared to historical trends.
In its report titled “2026 Outlook for Ghanaian Economy Remains Robust, Despite Q3 2025 Slowdown,” Fitch Solutions noted that the projected depreciation is below the cedi’s long-term average annual weakening of 10.2 percent recorded between 2010 and 2025, signalling a comparatively more stable outlook for the local currency.
“Elevated global gold prices and healthy international reserves will limit any undue pressure on the exchange rate in the coming quarters,” the firm stated, pointing to Ghana’s strong gold export performance and improved reserve buffers as key stabilising factors.
Fitch Solutions also expects inflationary pressures to remain manageable in 2026, despite some pickup in the second half of the year driven by demand-side factors. According to the firm, inflation will “run slightly hotter” in late 2026 but remain modest by recent standards, thereby reducing strain on household finances.
The report further highlighted the government’s fiscal stance as supportive of domestic demand. Fitch Solutions cited the 2026 Budget commitment to raise public-sector wages by 9.0 percent, describing it as a key factor that will help sustain household purchasing power.
“As such, we forecast private consumption growth to stay strong at 6.5 percent in 2026, contributing 5.3 percentage points to headline real GDP growth,” the firm noted.
Meanwhile, the cedi has come under mild pressure in recent weeks due to seasonal demand for foreign exchange. Over the past two weeks, the local currency experienced modest depreciation against major trading currencies, largely driven by increased seasonal demand and cautious foreign exchange interventions by the Bank of Ghana.
In the interbank market, the US dollar–cedi pair closed the two-week period at a midrate of GH¢11.41, reflecting slight weakening pressures. Against the British pound and the euro, the cedi depreciated by 4.62 percent and 3.87 percent, closing at GH¢15.26 and GH¢13.32, respectively.
Similar trends were observed in the retail market. The cedi slipped by 0.41 percent against the US dollar to GH¢12.05, while losing 0.94 percent and 1.08 percent against the pound and euro to close at GH¢15.90 and GH¢13.95, respectively.
Despite these short-term movements, Fitch Solutions maintains that Ghana’s currency outlook remains relatively stable, supported by strong commodity earnings, improving reserves and resilient domestic demand, even as moderate depreciation pressures persist into 2026.
