GoldBod Exports Heavily Concentrated In India, UAE Markets

Vice President of IMANI Centre for Policy and Education, Bright Simons, has raised concerns over Ghana Gold Board’s export structure, revealing that 98.2 per cent of its export value was directed to India and the United Arab Emirates between July and October 2025.

The disclosure, based on an assessment of GoldBod’s prospectus, has sparked debate about the sustainability and risk exposure of the state-backed gold aggregation initiative.

“Between July and October 2025, 98.2% of GoldBod’s export value flowed to India and the UAE,” Simons stated. “One sanctions event or one Gulf corridor disruption, and this elegant short-tenor revolving structure seizes up.”

He further noted that the concentration extends beyond geography to a handful of buyers. “The top four buyers took 78.4% of total value,” he added, describing the arrangement as a “narrow-funnel” system that leaves the programme vulnerable to external shocks.

According to Simons, such reliance on limited markets undermines the project’s goal of ensuring stable foreign exchange inflows to address Ghana’s cedi volatility challenges.

Beyond market concentration, he questioned the financial assumptions underpinning the model, particularly the projected 17.87 per cent annualised return used to attract investors.

“The projected returns depend almost entirely on a 25-pesewa foreign exchange spread,” he explained. “If that spread tightens to 15 pesewas, returns collapse to 2.3%, and at 10 pesewas, the operation becomes loss-making.”

He argued that this dependence suggests the model’s profitability may be artificial rather than sustainable.

Simons also highlighted structural weaknesses, including the absence of a Special Purpose Vehicle and insufficient collateral backing.

“Without perfected security over receivables, the structure lacks the legal strength to reassure lenders,” he said. “The guarantees are contradictory and would be rigorously tested by any serious credit committee.”

While acknowledging the concept behind GoldBod as promising, he maintained that significant gaps remain.

“There is a wide gap between a smart concept and a bankable deal,” Simons noted, warning that private banks are unlikely to commit under current conditions.

He concluded that unless these risks are addressed, the initiative may struggle to attract the level of investment needed to achieve its objectives.